The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday, holding steady amid the highest inflation in three years and signaling that future rate hikes could be on the horizon. The decision, announced at the end of a two-day meeting in Washington, marked the first time Kevin Warsh chaired the central bank’s policy committee since taking over from Jerome Powell last month.

The Federal Reserve’s committee voted unanimously to maintain its key interest rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This is the fourth straight meeting without a change, as officials weigh the impact of surging prices linked to the recent conflict with Iran. Inflation rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, the steepest annual climb since April 2023, largely because energy prices spiked during the US-Iran war. Gasoline prices remain more than a dollar per gallon above pre-war levels, though they have started to dip as hopes for a diplomatic resolution rise.

The central bank’s statement emphasized, “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.” The Fed’s main tool for fighting inflation—raising interest rates—has limited effect on supply-driven price surges, such as those caused by global energy disruptions. Still, forecasts from individual policymakers now suggest a quarter-point rate hike could come before year’s end, which is a shift from predictions of a rate cut made three months ago.

The decision was widely expected, with market trackers giving a 99% chance that rates would remain unchanged. However, projections indicate a growing likelihood of a rate increase by December if labor and financial market trends persist. The labor market has shown signs of recovery, with U.S. employers adding an average of 188,000 jobs per month over the past quarter, further weakening the case for a rate cut.

Discussion of Fed independence remains in focus, as President Donald Trump has publicly called for lower rates but recently shifted to opposing any hikes. Warsh, seen as Trump’s pick to push for cuts, has not provided his own interest rate forecast, expressing skepticism about forward guidance. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, has chosen to stay on the Fed’s board for now, serving as a “firewall” against potential political pressure on monetary policy.

On Wall Street, the announcement initially pushed stocks down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 183 points, and mortgage rates holding near recent highs.

Looking ahead, traders and analysts expect the Fed to watch carefully for signs that inflation is spreading beyond energy costs. The central bank’s quarterly projections, released Wednesday, show that nine of 17 officials foresee at least one rate hike this year if current conditions continue. Any future moves by Chairman Warsh will be closely watched, as markets adjust to his leadership style and communication approach in a still-volatile economic environment.

At Home with Gary Sullivan